It’s been no secret the next conference realignment could be a major one for college football. It has been in the cards for 5-8 years and everyone associated with the former 1-A programs knew it was coming. The question was would it be 64, 70, 85, 95 or 112 teams in the BCS conferences and how many conferences would there be.

First the NCAA has nothing to do with the bowl situation other then to certify the bowls to protect their members. Since that is out of the way, let’s get into the conference situation.

It has been known to all auto-BCS and non-auto BCS teams there has been a drive by some members to reduce the number of former 1-A schools, now called the BCS to something like 112, 96, 85, 70 or maybe even 64 teams who will share the BCS television money. The NCAA has put rules in place over the years that have been giving some teams warning about the upcoming changes and what they needed to do in order to be included in the special club.

North Texas Athletic Director Rick Villarreal has known about the upcoming changes and has been working hard to try to get North Texas into the planned exclusive club. It is why the new stadium has been such a dream of his. For programs to be in the club they have to have a stadium of 30,000 or more with 18,000 or more fans in attendance. Everyone else will be forced to be in a non-automatic conference with slim chance of getting into the BCS money or move down to division 2.

Now for the possible conference divisions and how it will impact some schools and conferences. The debate is how many conferences and how many teams should be in a conference. This is simple but complicated.

There are several blueprints discussed whether there should there be 12, 14 or 16 football teams in a conference. One scenario is to have six conferences with 16 teams in each conference for a total of 96 teams.  Other scenarios include having six conferences with 14 teams for a total of 84 teams or 12 teams in six conferences for 72 teams. There could be seven conferences with 12, 14 or 16 teams making it 84, 98 or 112 teams, or eight conferences with 12 teams for 96 teams. Finally, there could be just four conferences with 16 teams for a total of 64 teams.

With four, five, six, seven or eight conferences with 12, 14 or 16 teams it would allow an east/west or north/south divisions and a championship playoff game. The winners of the conference championship games would then play each other in the five or six BCS Bowls to determine the national champions. This way there is a true national champion, while keeping the bowls alive. To make it work there would be a limit of how many teams will be allowed to the BCS party.

While the NCAA is allowing more teams in basketball to share the wealth, the BCS football conferences are hoarding money and limiting the amount of teams to their party.  

Here is some inside information. When the Big East was raided by the ACC and forced to add new members they went after the CUSA schools. But there was a disagreement about which schools to add to the Big East. Memphis, Southern Miss and one other school was voted in by the coaches and AD’s but when it went to the presidents of the Big East schools the basketball schools did want all the football teams in because they felt they would be outvoted in matters by the football schools.

The Big East was first formed as a basketball conference and to go after the NCAA basketball money. The basketball schools could care less about the BCS Football money. They know only about three or four football teams a year make money playing in a bowl. They know the money is in basketball.

So the Big East presidents, in reverence to the basketball schools decided to accept South Florida for the recruiting area for football plus Cincinnati, Louisville as football and basketball members along with DePaul and Marquette for basketball only. The other schools were not extended an invitation.

With the acceptance of those five schools, the Big East had 16 members. The problem was they had eight football schools leaving themselves open to be picked off for the next expansion in football. That is about to happen and if things go the wrong way for them, football in the Big East could disappear.    

If you don’t think the Big East is concerned about the situation then consider West Virginia Head Football Coach Bill Stewart has stated he thinks Big East Football could disband. Former Big East Commission Mike Tranghese, now consulting Memphis, said "it’s a question of what the Big Ten does.’’ He said, "if the Big Ten takes multiple teams, the Big East is in trouble.’’ Could the Big East do something about it and in and interview he said "I don’t think there’s anything the Big East can do to prevent it." He went on to say "everyone is on pins and needles waiting to see what the Big Ten will do. It’s a pretty dicey time.’’

There is a $5 million exit fee for teams leaving The Big East Conference but getting $20 million a year will be pocket change to the teams leaving.

The Big East will be picked off and look for Syracuse, West Virginia and Rutgers to move to other conferences. If that happens look for Memphis, Southern Miss, East Carolina, Marshall and Central Florida to get an invite to the Big East making their conference ten football teams.  However, Tranghese has said "just adding teams will not make the Big East stronger.’’

If they added schools to get to ten football teams it would mean they would be short either four or six teams to get to 14 or 16 teams. So after this expansion, if the Big East survives they still will be open to attack at a later date. Just adding teams to the conference Tranghese stated “schools that would make the Big East more viable aren't available.”

If the Big East does expand to ten or more football teams, look for a possible split in the conference. The Big East would have 18 teams in the conference if they got to ten football teams and some feel that is too big of a conference to handle. So the thought is the basketball only schools may split and start their own conference leaving all football schools behind. If they go to 14 or 16 football teams, they will have a conference membership between 24-26 teams and there will almost certainly be a split. But there is more to this later.

How will this impact North Texas? There is going to be some kind of conference re-alignment in the near future and it will impact several conferences in Texas as well as some Texas schools. If the Big XII and the MWC lose a team or two to the Big Ten, The Pac-10 and the SEC. They will need to fill their holes. First they will go after each other and be forced to look at the WAC, CUSA and Sun Belt for replacements.

The conference expected to have the biggest challenge will be CUSA. If they are raided they will be forced to look at the Sun Belt and WAC schools. Of course, that would be a benefit to North Texas. There location will be attractive to the CUSA, MWC or WAC. It would be attractive for North Texas to move to one of those conferences for more bowl possibilities.

One proposal that was floated several years ago was four ‘super conferences’ with 16 teams each for a total of 64 teams to play in the BCS and the winners of the conference championship to play for the national title. This is a highly doable deal.

Now if all the conferences decide to go to 14 or 16 teams right away, that could be interesting because it might spell the death of the Big East as noted above and the Big 12. The Pac 10 is predicted to pick off part of the Big 12 and MWC schools TCU and Utah. The Big Ten goes after the Big 12 and the Big East. The SEC finishes off the Big 12 by grabbing Texas, A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Then the ACC finishes of the Big East picking up the rest of the conference teams. If this was to happen, two present auto-BCS Conferences would be eliminated. Of course, if Notre Dame is forced to join a conference that would be three auto-BCS “Conferences” gone. Therefore, there are four ‘super conferences” with 64 teams to share the BCS money.

With the Sun Belt, MWC, WAC, CUSA, Big 12 and the Big East cannibalized or retired the remaining schools would have to merge somehow along with any schools left out of the shuffle to form one or two conferences with little or no chance of getting a shot at the BCS money or national title.   

The shake-up would benefit North Texas because they would be primed to move up to another conference. The question is which one? The answer is, which one will North Texas make themselves more attractive for? The new stadium will help. The 35,000 student body helps. Being in the metroplex will help. It would be better chances of getting into more bowls. The low fan support hurts.